Israel’s Red Line for Turkey

Elections or no elections, this government or another, the recent IDF bombing of the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwest Syria was strategically crucial.

Elections or no elections, this government or another, the recent IDF bombing of the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwest Syria was strategically crucial. The strike followed intelligence reports of visits to the site by senior officers of the Turkish Air Force, apparently in preparation for the stationing there of Turkish warplanes. Post-October 7, Israel is determined never again to allow deadly forces to amass close to our borders. With the Iranians finally driven out of Syria, we must not now allow that country to become a military stronghold for yet another Islamic extremist, antisemitic, and violent regime.

With the regrettable backing of the United States, Turkey spearheads the Sunni Axis with Qatar and Pakistan. Together, they are rapidly replacing Iran’s Shi’ite Axis comprised of Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi and Syrian militias, and Palestinian terror groups allied with Tehran. Like the Shi’ites before it, the Sunni Axis also seeks to establish itself along Israel’s borders—in Gaza, Sinai, and Syria—and pose serious threats to Israel. Israel may be hampered by the Trump administration from preventing Turkish and Qatari involvement in Gaza, and by Cairo’s Sunni rulers from intervening in Sinai, but in Syria we can still take preemptive action. By doing so, Israel can deny Turkey the ability to confront us on most of our borders.

Even now, at the height of its regional power, Turkey is not Iran. Hundreds of millions of Sunnis in the world do not regard Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the way Shi’ites have revered Iran’s Supreme Leader as their sacred spiritual head. A Neo-Ottomanist as well as a Pan-Islamist, Erdoğan may fantasize about recreating the Sultanate but few people in the Middle East long for the return of the Turkish empire.

Turkey’s geographical location, which is partially in Europe, as well as its membership in NATO also act as checks on the country’s aggression. Israel has publicly reconciled with Erdoğan several times in the past. Such rapprochement, even if fleeting, would have been unthinkable with Iran.

Still, this does not mean that Israel can afford to let down our guard and ignore Erdoğan’s hostile words and actions. Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan recently declared that Israel is a “burden that humanity can no longer bear.” We must make unequivocally clear our determination to prevent Turkey from transforming Syria into a forward base for threatening us and expanding Ankara’s influence throughout the Middle East.

The UN and much of the world will condemn us and Turkey will swear to take revenge. Though some may claim that Israeli leaders are merely flexing their muscles before the elections, this is a matter of national security. Israel must stand firm and continue to make clear that Syria is out of bounds for Turkish warplanes.

A version of this article originally appeared in Hebrew in Israel Hayom on August 25, 2026.