Why Israel’s Election Won’t Change Its Wars

Interview on CBS News 24/7 · October 27, 2026

Executive Summary

As Israelis voted in their first national election since the October 7, 2023 attack, former Ambassador Michael Oren told CBS News that the outcome is unlikely to shift Israel’s course in Gaza, Lebanon or Iran. The real contest, he explained, is domestic: the investigation of October 7 and ultra-Orthodox military service, decided among 34 parties competing for a 61-seat majority.

Trump’s Endorsement: Oren said President Trump’s backing will not help Netanyahu “very materially,” since Trump’s popularity in Israel fell after the U.S.–Iran agreement that left Israel out, and may be worth one Knesset seat at most.
The Real Issues: Voters are deciding whether October 7 will be examined by an independent state commission or a government-appointed inquiry, and whether ultra-Orthodox Israelis will serve in the military.
Security Continuity: No major candidate will withdraw troops from Gaza or Lebanon while Hamas and Hezbollah remain armed, and none backs reviving the two-state solution. A new government “won’t make much of a change, at least not in the short run.”
Coalition Math: With 34 parties running, neither camp currently polls above roughly 54 to 58 of the 61 seats needed, so parties that refuse to sit with Arab or ultra-Orthodox factions may have to compromise.
A Resilient Democracy: Despite deep divisions, Israel has never known a moment of non-democratic rule, and Oren expects a peaceful transfer of power if Netanyahu is defeated.

Program: CBS News 24/7 live coverage of Israel’s October 27, 2026 election.
Guest: Michael Oren, former Israeli Ambassador to the United States.
Official source: CBS News on YouTube

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