For Americans, Shocking News About Israel’s Elections

Speaking with Israelis and Americans about the upcoming Israeli elections, one might think they were occurring in totally different countries.

I encountered this fact repeatedly during a recent speaking tour in the United States. While my American audiences were convinced that our major issues would be the conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, the future of U.S.-Israel relations, and the possible renewal of the peace process, I conveyed the shocking—for them—reality that the matters most concerning to Israeli voters were entirely domestic.

Heading the list was the conscription of Haredi (Ultra-Orthodox) men into the IDF. A strictly left-wing cause before the atrocities of October 7, Haredi military service has become a nationwide demand today led by the religious right. That community has paid disproportionately for this war in which roughly half of all the soldiers killed were religious Zionists. Deeply insulted by the Haredi claim that men cannot wear a uniform and remain observant, they accuse Ultra-Orthodox rabbis of perverting the Torah’s unequivocal commandments to fight. Outside of the Haredi parties, every contesting faction—even now the Likud, which previously backed Haredi exemptions—insists on Ultra-Orthodox service. For several candidates, among them Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Liberman, it is their central platform.

The next-most pressing domestic issue is the establishment of a commission of inquiry to investigate Israel’s October 7 failures. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition favored forming a government-appointed commission, the majority of Israelis demand an independent national board. “The government cannot investigate itself,” they explain, and recall that Hamas murdered Israelis irrespective of their political affiliations. Like the Haredi conscription issue, this one, too, cuts across classic left-right lines.

My American audiences were further stunned when I assured them that, irrespective of the elections’ winner, Israel’s next prime minister will not withdraw a single soldier from Gaza or Lebanon. He will certainly not agree to the creation of a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria or redivide Jerusalem. But the final shock came when I suggested that there might not be a clear winner at all.

In that scenario, neither the pro nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc can put together a coalition without giving the premiership to a “kingmaker.” That is the politician who, though his party falls short of receiving a large number of Knesset seats, nevertheless proves most adept at cobbling together a coalition. Indeed, no functioning government can possibly emerge without him. Famously, in 2021, Naftali Bennett became prime minister after winning a mere six seats. This time, with an anticipated ten seats, the “kingmaker,” I predicted, could well be Avigdor Liberman.

Though Americans scarcely know him, Liberman has held every senior ministerial post—foreign affairs, treasury, and defense—and succeeded at all of them. Renowned for his hardline positions on Haredi conscription and security issues, he also gained respect as the only minister who, prior to October 7, repeatedly warned about the dangers of Hamas. His Yisrael Beitenu party, once largely supported by immigrants from the former Soviet Union, now enjoys a far broader base among Israelis who like Liberman’s tough defense stance and opposition to religious coercion. Not only a kingmaker, Liberman could well be a widely acceptable king.

As usual in Israeli elections, the field is both wide and deep. The spectrum runs from the extreme leftist Democratic Party led by Yair Golan to the radical Religious Zionist and Jewish Power parties of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, respectively. There is the center-left Yesh Atid party of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White as well as new center-right parties similarly focused on the Haredi and investigative commission issues. There is a moderate Arab party headed by Mansour Abbas and a contending list of Arab nationalists and Communists. And, as always, there are the Haredi parties, Ashkenazi and Mizrahi.

Though polls currently show a respectable lead for the Yashar Party of former IDF chief-of-staff Gadi Eisenkot, he lacks extensive political and diplomatic experience. Netanyahu, meanwhile, still scores high as the politician most suitable for the role of prime minister. But neither he nor his challengers can yet be seen as capable of creating a stable coalition. Barring the establishment of a Zionist government comprised of Netanyahu, Eisenkot, Bennett, and others—a possible but unlikely scenario—Israel seems headed for a political stalemate similar to that which, between 2019 and 2022, led to three inconclusive elections. That is where Liberman, the kingmaker, may well come in.

Whether he or any one of the many candidates heads the next government, the position of Israeli prime minister will remain the planet’s most difficult. I stressed this point repeatedly to my American listeners who, if surprised by my earlier remarks, were perhaps reassured by their conclusion.

Israel’s leader, I ended, “must combine resilience, experience, and a vision of the future—all the while commanding the bulk of the people’s trust.”

Originally published on Clarity with Michael Oren.