There is no cost-free way to bring this war to an end.
In English, one says that a leader or a government has “climbed up a ladder” while in Israel the expression is “climbs up a tree.” Either way—a ladder or a tree—Israel’s government and its leader have ascended very high. Ever since Prime Minister Netanyahu declared his intent to conquer the remaining one-quarter of Gaza and achieve “total victory” over Hamas, commentators both in Israel and abroad have asked, “Now that Bibi has climbed up the highest ladder or tree, how can he get down?”
One proposed solution is for Israel to declare its readiness to completely withdraw from Gaza in return for the release of all the hostages. The problem, though, is that Hamas may be evil, but it is not stupid and will always keep a few hostages as a guarantee against a future Israeli invasion of the Strip. While Hamas reasserts its control over Gaza and plots the next October 7, Israel’s hostage nightmare, however reduced, will continue.
The withdrawal-for-hostage deal has another fateful drawback. Arab states that would have made peace with a strong Israel that defeated their twin enemies—the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood and Shi’ite Iran—would be loath to make peace with an Israel humbled by Hamas, the Brotherhood’s Iran-backed branch. Those who hoped for an expansion of the Abraham Accords will, in the wake of the deal, likely be disappointed.
Another possible means of descent from the ladder or treetop is to repeat the 2020 deal in which Israel received peace with the United Arab Emirates in return for agreeing not to annex parts of Judea and Samaria. Now, Israel could trade its agreement not to conquer Gaza City in return for peace with Saudi Arabia. The United States could then pressure Qatar to pressure Hamas to release the hostages and surrender its weapons.
The problem here is the additional price that the Saudis are demanding for peace: substantive steps toward creating a Palestinian state. That is a price that this government, together with a majority of Israelis, is simply unwilling to pay.
There remains one out-of-the-box proposal. Rather than climbing down, Israel should ascend even higher. Hamas believes that the tsunami of international condemnations of Israel, combined with the domestic pressure generated by the protest of nearly half a million Israelis this week, will force Netanyahu to back down. But what if he weathers the storm and pushes forward with the invasion plan? What if, by doing so, he shows Hamas that no amount of international and Israeli domestic intervention can save it? Faced with certain destruction, Hamas may then accept a ceasefire-for-hostages deal.
As the offensive begins, tellingly, Hamas is reportedly saying it is ready to make a deal.
Ultimately, there is no cost-free way to bring this war to an end. Every path is filled with obstacles and abysses. Whichever policy the government adopts must be clear, strong, and effectively communicated. Whether Israel climbs up or down the ladder or the tree, it must do so courageously and responsibly all the way.
